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Trader's Blog: Rethinking Your Strategies PDF Print E-mail
Written by Ric Conzet   
Sunday, 14 September 2008 10:25

More Fannie and Freddie fallout. The Treasury's bailout is labeled a "conservatorship," but it's treated as a bankruptcy in the market for credit protection insurance, or credit default swaps (CDSs). One London banker estimates $200 billion to $500 billion of Fannie/Freddie CDSs are outstanding. That makes the Fannie/Freddie debacle many times larger than the next largest CDS default, which was auto-parts maker Delphi, which had $25 billion of CDSs outstanding in 2005. At a loss rate of 10%, insurers and banks could be on the hook for as much as $50 billion of Fannie/Freddie CDS losses. AIG and Washington Mutual's upcoming shake out come to mind.

In another story today we stated that Friday was one of the most important days to watch market reaction in recent history.  What we saw was one of the craziest up-down-no direction days possible.  There was only program trading with no real money changing hands.  This shows that the real money is sitting it out right now.
 
With Merrill showing extreme weakness this week fear is building on the street.  But Merrill doesn’t seem like a potential wipeout to me.
 
Those folks that followed our advice to short Goldman Sachs last week have already cleared over $20 a share.
 
Be careful: The stock market is not rational right now. Stocks don't go up or down based on fundamental or technical factors. They move at random. And there's no sense to it.
 
So as a trader, buying or selling stocks right now is like stepping into the ring against Evander Holyfield in the prime of his career. It doesn't matter how good your jab is.
 
You can stick your chin out and take the punch. And maybe you can last the round. But most people will be down for the count.
Traders can't afford to suffer a knockout blow.
So when the match is out of hand, and what used to work doesn't work anymore, you need to step away from the fight and take the lose while still be standing.
 
Take the time to rethink your strategy, gain your composure, and figure out the best way to get back into the fight.
And for most traders, it's the right strategy right now.
 

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